Scientific framework for seismic consequence analysis: GMPE intensity attenuation, MMI V–VIII ground shaking radii, structural building vulnerability tiers, and casualty estimation.
Calculating instrumental MMI shaking intensity as a function of magnitude and focal depth
Ground Motion Prediction Equations model the logarithmic dissipation of seismic kinetic energy as body and surface waves propagate through the heterogeneous lithosphere, determining expected local shaking severity on the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) scale based on hypocentral distance, focal depth, and rupture magnitude.
Felt by nearly everyone; sleeping people awakened. Hanging objects swing. Negligible structural damage.
Felt by all; many frightened and run outdoors. Minor plaster cracks and overturned furniture.
Considerable damage in poorly built or unreinforced structures; slight to moderate damage in well-engineered buildings.
Severe damage and partial collapse in standard buildings; heavy masonry walls, chimneys, and towers fail.
Resident count aggregation and structural construction vulnerability mapping
Modern seismic-resistant reinforced concrete or base-isolated frames (Japan, Chile, West Coast US, modern New Zealand).
Mixed urban construction: reinforced concrete frames with masonry infill walls, mid-era brick apartment buildings.
Unreinforced brick, adobe, or stone masonry with no seismic tie beams (elevated collapse risk).
PAGER-aligned model for probabilistic estimation of casualties during damaging tremors
By combining predicted ground motion field intensity (MMI V through VIII+) with high-resolution Uber H3 residential density and regional building vulnerability profiles, the system computes probabilistic casualty distributions aligned with historical humanitarian impact observations.
Four-tier standardized color classification for international emergency responders and civil defense
Minimal humanitarian consequences. Fatalities estimated at 0. No international emergency intervention required.
Localized casualties and structural damage (1–99 fatalities). Regional civil defense alert.
Significant casualties (100–999 fatalities) and widespread infrastructural damage. National emergency response.
Catastrophic fatalities and widespread devastation (1,000+ fatalities). Mobilization of UN and global relief assets required.
Scientific framework for seismic consequence analysis: GMPE intensity attenuation, MMI V–VIII ground shaking radii, structural building vulnerability tiers, and casualty estimation.